Welcome to the GPSA Political Web Forum. Floor is open to any / all discussions regarding the socio-political situation in the post-apartheid South Africa. Note that your posting will appear immediately.
Thank you for the frank and unblinking honesty in commenting on the current scenario.
My current take on this is that the following will happen:
1. Remember that the ANCYL are the wild dogs, sent in to soften up any target. They fill the same role as Bob's dogs, called "veterans". When they start barking at someone, the target knows he is destined to die, and rather complies with the instructions to resign, run or whatever.
2. The breakaway party led by Lekota (at least ONE person is prepared to stick to his principles!) will have a hard time. In typical Africa fashion, a number of their members will be necklaced, murdered and raped - which is standard for South Africa.
3. These atrocities, as well as the greed of other poltical figures, will alienate more of the traditional ANC supporters, leading to more support for the breakaway party.
4. This will dilute the ANC's power base to the extent that the election is lost to other coalitions in some provinces, and the majority in parliament will fall below 66%.
5. This will not be to the taste of the militant core ANC members, and violence will break out on a grand scale - vis-a-vis the African business method: If your competition gets too strong and starts taking away your market share, kill him!
6. This final chaos will destabilize the country to the point where we approach a Zimbabwe-like state.
What with all the criticism of the judiciary, the lack of integrity of some of the senior members of the judiciary as displayed by Hlope and Mthata, no traditional pillar of democracy remains safe in the hands of a power crazy ANC. Some people will run this country into the ground, just for the ideal to rule it - even if it turns out that the kingdom then is little more than ashes. Remember "liberation before education"? And today we pick the fruits of this idiotic philosophy....